Core Theme: As lithium carbonate prices approach RMB 190,000/ton, cost pressures are cascading down the supply chain. While miners celebrate, battery manufacturers face immense pressure, and automakers, due to transmission lags, are holding steady for now.

Miners Rejoice, Midstream Feels the Squeeze

"If lithium carbonate prices can continue to rise steadily, it will provide good support for our future performance," a comment from a representative of Tibet Mineral Development reflects the sentiment of upstream resource companies . For midstream battery manufacturers, however, this "joy" translates into tangible cost pressures.

Yang Hongxin, Chairman of SVOLT, recently stated that the biggest uncertainty for the company"s 2025 profitability target comes from rising upstream raw material costs, which cannot be quickly and fully passed on to downstream customers .

The "Gradient Lag" of Price Transmission

Despite the pressure, consumers may not feel the impact on car prices immediately. Experts point to a significant "gradient lag" in the transmission of raw material price increases .

• First Stage: Mine to Materials (approx. 10 days): Cathode and electrolyte makers start feeling cost pressure about 10 days after a lithium price hike.

• Second Stage: Materials to Batteries (approx. 1 month): Passing pressure to battery cells typically takes about a month of negotiation.

• Third Stage: Batteries to Vehicles (approx. 1 quarter or more): This is the slowest link.

Under annual or quarterly pricing contracts, battery makers often absorb costs by drawing down inventory or compressing margins in the short term, with costs only gradually reflected in battery prices during new contract negotiations .

Automaker Strategies: Internal Digestion and Product Evolution

An Qingheng, Director of the China Automotive Industry Consulting Committee, suggests that if raw material price increases are modest, automakers will first try to absorb them through technological innovation and efficiency improvements. Terminal price adjustments are a last resort . Ji Xuehong from North China University of Technology adds that even if adjustments occur, they will be gradual.

Long-Term Outlook: Cost Control as Key Competitiveness

Facing lithium price volatility, the strategies of industry players are reshaping the competitive landscape. Li Jianing, an analyst at Shanghai Steelhome, notes that in the long run, companies that secure upstream resources, master differentiated technologies, and promote integrated industrial chains are more likely to emerge as winners in the upcoming industry shakeout